The latest exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections indicate a strong performance for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JDU, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan seems set to trail far behind. Various pollsters have released their predictions on Tuesday evening, with the NDA expected to secure between 130 and 209 seats out of the 243-member assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is projected to win between 70 and 102 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj appears to have minimal impact, with projections ranging from 0 to 5 seats.
Poll Diary gave the highest estimate to the NDA, predicting 184 to 209 seats, while Matrize projected 147-167 seats. Other major pollsters including P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, and Polstrat also forecast a clear edge for the NDA. Only Journo Mirror projected a Mahagathbandhan win, predicting 130-140 seats for the alliance and 100-110 for the NDA. Chanakya Strategies, while yet to release its final numbers, is also expected to favor the NDA.
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout in these elections. According to the Election Commission of India, 66.91% of eligible voters participated, surpassing all previous records since the first assembly elections in 1951. Female voter turnout outpaced men, with 71.6% women voting compared to 62.8% of men. Phase one had a turnout of 65.08%, while phase two recorded 67.14% by 5 pm. 
Political leaders reacted to the exit poll results with mixed statements. BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain claimed that the results showed public support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and development-focused governance, while RJD leaders cautioned that exit polls have been proven wrong in the past and expressed confidence that Mahagathbandhan could still win. Outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha expressed confidence that the NDA might perform even better than the projections once final results are counted.
Union Minister Satish Chandra Dubey highlighted the NDA’s approach to governance, stating that there is “never any arrogance” when the alliance comes to power, adding that the Nitish-Modi team has worked for the people and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, Independent MP Pappu Yadav questioned the accuracy of exit polls and expressed hope for a Mahagathbandhan-led government.
Party-wise projections released by multiple pollsters show the BJP and JDU forming the core of the NDA’s expected win. P-Marq estimated 142-162 seats for the NDA with BJP winning 68-78 and JDU 62-72. Matrize projected JDU taking the lead among NDA partners, with 67-75 seats, while BJP is expected to win 65-73 seats. For the Mahagathbandhan, RJD is projected to win 53-72 seats, and Congress 9-19 seats.
In terms of preferred Chief Minister, Peoples Pulse found that Tejashwi Yadav leads slightly with 32%, closely followed by Nitish Kumar at 30%. Prashant Kishor and Chirag Paswan each received 8% support, while other leaders accounted for the remaining percentages.
